Architects brush off economic gloom as confidence surges back

Architects have reported an unexpected surge in confidence despite wider fears that the UK economy is about to tip over into a recession.

RIBA最新的“未来趋势”(Future Trends)调查发现，上月对未来工作量的预期指数跃升了8个点，扭转了2月份以来乐观情绪下降的趋势。

It comes after the ONS said the UK economy shrank for two months in a row for the first time since the start of the covid pandemic.

The economy contracted by 0.1 % in March and then by a worse than expected 0.3% in April, with CBI director-general Tony Danker warning the economy is likely to be “stagnant” in the months ahead. A recession is defined as contraction in two consecutive three-month periods.

The increase in confidence reported by practices in May is a significant recovery from April’s survey, which returned thesharpest decline in workload expectations since the early days of the pandemic.

Last month’s survey found 29% of practices now expect workloads to increase, compared to 23% in April, while 16% expect them to decrease and 56% expect them to remain the same.

Confidence is also back in London, which rose to a balance figure of +22 in May after three months of declining optimism.

The mood appeared to be getting brighter across most of the UK, with the Midlands and East Anglia being the only region which saw confidence slump.

The survey found that Wales and the West and the North of England are still the most upbeat about future workloads, while the South of England is back on its feet after reporting a wobble in confidence last month.

Practices are also keen to recruit, with the index figure for permanent staffing expectations up by one point last month following a four point drop in April.

But RIBA head of economic research and analysis Adrian Malleson warned that while optimism appears to be returning, it comes against a backdrop of continued economic uncertainty and deteriorating growth forecasts.

他说:“建筑行业仍然有弹性，但该行业继续面临阻力，我们可以预计，未来几个月建筑师、建筑行业和更广泛的经济都将面临挑战。”

Malleson added that some practices had reported enquiries failing to translate into appointments and projects being cancelled as worsening cost inflation gives clients cold feet.

他说，规划过程的拖延也阻碍了计划的实施，尤其是在受保护的地区。

The Bank of England said last month that the UK faces a “sharp economic slowdown” and forecasted that inflation could top 10% by the end of this year. Minutes from a meeting of the bank’s monetary policy committee yesterday showed the bank expects the economy to shrink 0.3% between April and June this year.